Today, nobody already denies the fact of climate global warming. What will expect us in the future? This issue is the subject of heated discussions of scientists all over the world. Different scenarios of possible consequences of the processes taking place now, including melting of permafrost, arctic ice* with rise of ocean level and flooding of fields of land (in Siberia, for example, Yamal Peninsula and some lowlands), are considered. To struggle against such disastrous phenomena, they even suggest to "throw" aerosols at near-Earth space which will stop rise of temperature of near-surface atmosphere. The opposite versions are also discussed: it is possible that within the next 7 - 10 years cooling will begin as a result of forecasted weakening of solar activity**. This divergence of views speaks for imperfection of the existing climate theory which has been considered as a steady characteristic of one or another zone for centuries. Only in the last decades they began to regard it as a complicated dynamic system making attempts of its strict physical and mathematical description. Warming being observed at present is determined by many events of heliosphere, geosphere, biosphere, man-made nature, and at mathematical modeling of climate it is compulsory to take them into account at the same time. When developing a theory of sensitiveness to external actions which have regional peculiarities, the analysis of empirical data becomes more topical (moreover, as to many zones of the planet, they are accumulated for a rather long period of time). The study of the regularities revealed on its basis is at the stage of methodological search for the time being. From here particular interest of scientists in such a vast continental zone as Siberia (about 10 mln km') is clear. The analysis of instrumental data shows: frequency of abnormal deviations from climatic norms during the 20th century has not changed as a whole. However, in some areas for the last d ... Read more

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Беларусь Анлайн · 2125 days ago 0 453
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