A BOOK ABOUT THE FUTURE OF CIVILIZATIONS IN THE XXI CENTURY
Paradoxically, the importance of the civilizational approach is increasing in connection with globalization. The" answer "to the" challenge " of globalization is the desire of communities and individuals to assert their special identity - national, ethnic, confessional — that is, in general, related to the "culture" and "civilization"factor. The analysis of not only demographic growth trends, but also the prospects of migration pressure is very relevant in the work of A.V. Akimov and A. I. Yakovlev. Diagrams showing the imbalance between civilizations in terms of population size, availability of arable land, energy and water resources also indicate possible conflicts and tensions in relations between civilizations in the case of the most undesirable scenario of "struggle for resources". Keywords: civilizational approach, forecasts, globalization, transnational corporations, energy resources, demographic forecast, international migration. The monograph of A. V. Akimov and A. I. Yakovlev "Civilizations in the XXI century: Problems and prospects of development", published in 2012, is an important event in Russian scientific life. After providing detailed digital assessments of various options for demographic development, energy supply, and food production, the authors performed work that large research teams with a full staff of support staff could do together. The authors made their forecasts, perfectly guided by the main publications of recent years on forecasts-domestic, among which we can distinguish the IMEMO RAS forecast and the forecast of the team led by A. A. Akaev, A.V. Korotaev, G. G. Malinetsky, S. Yu. Malkov [Strategic forecast..., 2011; Projects..., 2011], and foreign [Mir ..., 2009, Meadows et al., 2012]. The book " Projects and risks of the future. Concepts, models, tools and forecasts " edited by A. A. Akaev and A. V. Korotaev contains demographic forecast, forecasts of energy consumption and GDP dynamics for 2100 [Proekty..., 2011]. Most of the "compe ... Читать далее
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Беларусь Анлайн · 56 days ago 0 57
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Беларусь Анлайн
Минск, Belarus
26.11.2024 (56 days ago)
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A BOOK ABOUT THE FUTURE OF CIVILIZATIONS IN THE XXI CENTURY
 

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